Confidential · CT management
FY27 plan: prep pack
Built from the September 2026 model (P09 V3, live scenario "Reduced Bridgeway"), the August MI pack and the 8 October MI review. £k, GL revenue (after ~4% partner fees) unless marked gross. Gross bookings ≈ GL ÷ 0.96.
The short version
- FY26 lands at about breakeven. £2.51M revenue (£2.61M gross), PBT −£20k in the model, roughly −£5k to −£13k after the fixes agreed on the call. Revenue is up 3% on FY25, but gross profit is down £232k. The biggest driver is Nico's commission rising from 31% to 48.5% of Outbound revenue, worth ≈ £212k at FY26 volumes.
- Doug's model already rolls FY27 forward, and it is a run-rate, not a plan: £2.51M revenue, £19k PBT. Spain growth (+£246k) only replaces Bridgeway (−£245k Outbound), and the profit comes from £158k less overhead, mostly FY26 one-offs plus marketing switched off.
- Where growth comes from matters more than how much. £100k of extra revenue is worth £97k of GP from the existing UK/KSA team, £68k through partners, £57k through Spain and £46k through Outbound IL.
- £3M gross needs about £370k more GL revenue than the draft. Doubling by FY28 needs about £3.7M gross in FY27. Pick one before the plan is built, because they need very different FY27 spend.
- Cash of £657k at December can fund roughly £200k of bets, if each one has a revenue commitment, a review date and a stop rule. That rule is the main thing FY26 was missing.
1Four flat years
| FY24 | FY25 | FY26 fcst | FY27 draft | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,438 | 2,428 | 2,507 | 2,510 |
| Gross profit | 1,560 | 1,704 | 1,472 | 1,353 |
| GP % | 64.0% | 70.2% | 58.7% | 53.9% |
| Overheads | 1,379 | 1,564 | 1,492 | 1,334 |
| PBT | 181 | 139 | −20 | 19 |
FY25 is shown as restated in the September model (GP £1,704k; the August pack had £1,680k). The FY27 draft is the model's own roll-forward of the live scenario, set up on the "P&L by month" sheet.
2Where FY26 lands
Model: revenue £2,507k (+7% vs plan £2,352k, ~9% short of the £2.88M gross target); GP £1,472k (+£14k vs plan); overheads £1,492k (+£17k vs plan); PBT −£19.9k (plan −£17.2k). In one month the forecast moved from −£141k (August pack) to −£20k: GP rose £90k (Spain grossed up, Q4 revenue reset) and overheads fell £31k (Fountain stopped).
| Q4 fix agreed or raised on the call | PBT £k |
|---|---|
| Spain sales hire not joining Nov–Dec (model has ~£5.6k/month loaded from November) | +11 |
| Hemsley retainer halved from October (model still has £3.6k/month) | +5 |
| Spain golf event (8 Nov) at £3k rather than £2k, plus Phil's travel | −2 |
| Spain Nov–Dec revenue at risk without the hire (draft has £28.5k GL) | 0 to −8 |
| Likely landing | −5 to −13 |
Mark's October run-rate read (≥ £172.5k gross) matches the model's £173.5k, so there's no revenue upside in the forecast yet. Showing even £1 of profit means finding another £5–15k in Q4.
Why profit fell from FY25 (£139k → −£20k)
| Driver | £k |
|---|---|
| Outbound IL GP: revenue +£163k, but Nico's commission went from 31.2% to 48.5% of revenue | −106 |
| Inbound UK/KSA GP: revenue −£131k (−11%), partly offset by lower team cost | −64 |
| FY25 unallocated cost-of-sales credits that didn't recur | −49 |
| Spain start-up (Jul–Dec) | −12 |
| ADs, PayPlexo | −1 |
| Overheads | +72 |
| Change in PBT | −159 |
At FY26 Outbound revenue, the commission-rate change alone is worth ≈ £212k of GP. Year to date the mix flatters revenue: +13% vs plan on revenue, +7% on GP, and PBT is below FY25.
3The FY27 starting point (Doug's draft)
| Stream | FY26F rev | FY27 rev | Δ | FY27 GP | GP % | Draft assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inbound UK + KSA | 1,090 | 1,091 | 0 | 956 | 87.7% | KSA £46k, £46k, £60k gross a month in each quarter; other UK £41k, £41k, £50k |
| Outbound IL | 1,224 | 979 | −245 | 378 | 38.6% | £85k/month gross from Jan (Q4-26 is £65–75k; H1-26 averaged ~£135k) |
| Spain | 62 | 308 | +246 | 10 | 3.3% | Ramps £18k → £31k/month gross; 2 heads; 30% partner + 12.5% staff commission |
| ADs | 118 | 115 | −3 | 58 | 50% | £10k/month |
| PayPlexo | 14 | 17 | +3 | 14 | 80% | £1.5k/month |
| Outbound successor head | – | – | −62 | £55k salary from Jan-27, no revenue attached | ||
| Total | 2,507 | 2,510 | +3 | 1,353 | 53.9% | Overheads £1,334k → PBT £19k |
Inbound UK/KSA brings in 43% of revenue and 71% of GP. Break-even in the draft averages £207k GL a month, against average revenue of £209k. Fixed costs, including direct salaries, are £143k a month.
How the draft gets from −£20k to +£19k
| Driver | £k |
|---|---|
| Outbound IL GP (Bridgeway gone) | −114 |
| Outbound successor head | −62 |
| Inbound UK/KSA GP (lower team cost, no activation spend) | +37 |
| Spain | +22 |
| ADs / PayPlexo | −2 |
| Overheads lower | +158 |
| of which marketing −80 (Fountain, Aqua8 gone) · indirect payroll −59 (no exec bonus, ops leaver) · recruitment −24 · UAE accommodation −21 · IT −11 · FY26 FX gain not repeated +27 · consulting +12 · other −2 | |
| Change in PBT | +39 |
4What the draft misses
Rebase these before any plan conversation, or the starting number is wrong.
| Item | FY27 PBT £k | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Hemsley retainer still £3.6k/month; now £1.8k | +22 | agreed |
| UK office £5,760/month; target ≤ £5,000 (Paul, with Mark when he's next in the office) | +9 | in hand |
| Spain sales hire still in from Nov-26 (~£67k loaded a year) | ±67 | decide |
| Outbound successor head from Jan-27 (£62k loaded), no revenue attached | ±62 | decide end Oct |
| Spain payroll steps up from Nov-26 by ~£2.3k/month on top of the new hire. What drives it? | up to +28 | check |
| No FY27 pay review (every rise in the model is dated 2026) | ≈ −19 per 3% | add |
| No exec or staff bonus pool (FY26 indirect payroll includes exec bonuses) | ? | size |
| Recruitment £0 (FY26: £24k) | −10 to −15 per agency hire | add if hiring |
| UAE accommodation (£24k/year) drops out from Dec-26 | −24 if it continues | confirm |
| Marketing £98k (3.9% of revenue): no growth budget, no Wow, events or connector programme | – | set bets budget |
| New partner-sourced UK revenue would cost ~30% partner commission, not the 1.3% in the Inbound UK rates | – | model as own stream |
| Outbound IL £85k/month from Jan assumes new Nico business lands by Christmas. Each £10k/month short costs about £53k of PBT a year | −53 per £10k/mo | end-Oct review |
| Months are flat; FY26 peaked at quarter-end (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) | – | rephase |
| R&D tax credit: is one assumed? Ascent's work is overseas, which the merged scheme mostly excludes | cash | confirm |
5Stream economics
GP from an extra £100k of revenue (FY27 model rates, before new heads)
| Source of the extra £100k | GP £k | What comes off |
|---|---|---|
| Existing UK/KSA team, direct | 97 | 2% staff commission, 1.3% affiliate |
| PayPlexo | 80 | 20% commission |
| UK partner / connector-sourced (Wow, Imran, etc.) | 68 | 30% partner, 2% staff |
| Spain | 57.5 | 30% partner, 12.5% staff |
| ADs | 50 | 50% commission |
| Outbound IL | 46 | 48.5% Nico, 5.5% affiliates |
Spain break-even. With both heads (£167k loaded) plus £20k of Spain overhead (EOR £14.4k, travel, events), Spain breaks even at £326k GL (~£28k/month gross). The draft has £308k, so about −£10k. With the partner manager alone it breaks even at £210k GL (~£18k/month gross). The second hire pays for herself only if she adds ≥ £117k GL (~£10k/month gross) of Spain revenue. The partner rate is the margin lever: 30% → 20% on the draft's £308k is worth +£31k.
Outbound concentration. The model's "Nico leaves" scenario keeps 25% of his revenue at UK-style commission with a like-for-like hire. On the FY27 draft that is −£233k GP, taking PBT to about −£214k. The successor head costs £62k. Decide whether it is insurance (priced against that downside) or a revenue role (it needs ~£135k of Outbound revenue to pay for itself).
6Closing the gap to £3M
| Ambition | FY27 gross | vs draft (gross) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draft run-rate | 2.61M | – | Fifth flat year |
| £3M | 3.00M | +0.39M | +15%; to double by FY28, the next year would then need +74% |
| Double by FY28 (£5.2M) | 3.69M | +1.08M | +41% a year, both years; needs new channels at scale in FY27, not just repairs |
Lever sizes below are starting points for discussion, not forecasts. Each owner should replace them with a bet card.
| Lever | Owner | FY27 rev £k | GP £k | What has to be true | Leading indicator |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbound IL back to £100k/month gross (draft £85k) | Nico, Stevan | +173 | +79 | ~£35k/month of new Nico business above the Aug–Nov floor; Bridgeway back in the workflow | Monthly Outbound bookings; Bridgeway volume |
| UK partner & connector channel (Wow, Imran/Nathan, David Morley, Hannah) | Stevan, Marcus, Paul | +70 stretch 140 | +48 95 | 15 corporates trading by mid-year at the £9.4k/year median for introducer-sourced corporates; 30% partner terms with no stacked overrides; onboarding capacity | Intros/month → accounts → first trades |
| KSA book +10% | Sarah, Saul | +58 | +56 | KSA trips actually happen (FY26 KSA travel mostly unspent); dormant clients reactivated | Active KSA clients/month |
| ILS rail (Adesco pilot) | Paul | TBC | TBC | Rail live; EUR→ILS flow (£217k/year corridor) protected or won back | Pilot live date |
| Spain: hold the draft's £308k and make it a committed number | Tom C, Paul | 0 | +31 if partner rate falls to 20% | ES IBAN live; Spain target set and owned for the first time | Monthly Spain bookings by agent |
| Dubai / UAE | Stevan, Mark | TBC | TBC | A defined bet with a revenue number. The FY26 UAE hire cost ~£33k including the fee, with no revenue booked to UAE | – |
| Sized levers | +301 stretch 371 | +183 230 | Gap to £3M is ~£370k GL | ||
Reading: £3M needs Outbound back near £100k a month and the partner channel at stretch. If Outbound stays at the Q4 run-rate (£65k/month), the draft is already £230k too high, and £3M would need ~£600k from everything else.
7Cost lines to decide
| Line | FY27 draft £k | Question for the plan |
|---|---|---|
| Ascent dev team | 276 | The biggest single overhead (21%), flat with no roadmap attached. Tie FY27 scope to the revenue bets. |
| IT software & subscriptions | 122 | Already cut after review. Hold. |
| Customer acquisition | 98 | No growth budget. Set a bets budget with payback dates. |
| Marketing contractor | 47 | Attach pipeline KPIs. |
| Travel | 47 | £24k of KSA travel mostly unspent in FY26. Either make it a bet with a revenue number or remove it. |
| Hemsley retainer | 43 → 22 | Agreed. His value now is the agency/Wow introductions; measure it that way. |
| Android app contractor | 36 | Still needed at this level? |
| UK office | 69 → 60 | Renegotiate (Paul + Mark). |
FY26 spend with no return line in the model: Fountain, Hemsley and Aqua8 £109k year to date; the UAE partner hire ~£33k. Neither is necessarily wrong, but nobody can say what they returned.
8Cash and investment capacity
- £688k at end of September, including £138k savings and £73k investment account. Deposit accounts are set up; longer-term placement waits on the strategy discussion.
- December forecast is £657k, against £536k at the start of the year. The gain is mostly the R&D tax refund, not trading.
- Next twelve months: £610k–£680k. Cash drops £57–72k in each quarterly Nico commission month (Nov, Feb, May, Aug).
- Fixed costs of £143k a month give 4.6 months of cover. Holding a 3-month floor (~£430k) leaves ~£180–230k to deploy in FY27, on bets with a payback date.
9How to run the planning
Rules (lessons from FY26)
- Target gross profit, not revenue. Mix moved FY26 to +13% on revenue and +7% on GP year to date, with PBT below FY25.
- Use one basis. Teams target gross bookings; the model runs on GL. Bridge at 0.96 plus forward timing and publish both numbers.
- No new head or spend line without a bet card: monthly revenue committed, cost, leading indicator, review date and stop rule. This is Doug's August point: "make ourselves accountable for the changes our investments should be delivering".
- Spain gets its own target, P&L line and commission plan. UK team commission thresholds should exclude Spain revenue (the Saul issue).
- Phase months on FY26 seasonality, not flat.
- Three scenarios: Floor (run-rate, bets fail), Plan (committed bets), Stretch (the chosen ambition).
Timeline
| When | What | Who |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 12 Oct | Agency meeting (set up by Stevan) | Mark + team |
| by Thu 15 Oct | FY26 reforecast v4: Spain hire out, Hemsley halved, golf £3k, Spain update from Paul | Doug, Paul |
| Mon 19 Oct | Wow: meet Peter Czapp (proposed) | Mark, Paul |
| Fri 23 Oct | Bet cards in (one page each, see below) | Owners |
| end Oct | Nico book and Bridgeway review → sets Outbound base and the successor decision | Stevan, Mark |
| Sun 8 Nov | Spain golf event | Tom C, Phil |
| ~Thu 12 Nov | FY27 v1 with Floor / Plan / Stretch, alongside the October MI | Doug |
| w/c 23 Nov | In person in London (dates being aligned): agree ambition, targets, commission plans, bets budget | Stevan, Mark, Paul, Doug |
| mid Dec | Final FY27 plan loaded as the Plan scenario | Doug |
Bet cards requested
| Area | Owner | Needs to show |
|---|---|---|
| Outbound IL | Nico, Stevan | FY27 book by client, Bridgeway status, named new prospects and timing |
| Spain | Tom C, Paul | Monthly revenue by partner agent, partner rates, hire decision, ES IBAN date |
| UK partnerships | Stevan, Marcus, Paul | Wow decision, connector terms, intro → trade funnel targets, onboarding capacity |
| KSA | Sarah, Saul | Active clients, trip plan, FY27 target |
| UK inbound & marketing | Ingrid, Tom R | What the marketing spend commits to in pipeline and first trades |
| Tech | Stevan, Ascent lead | FY27 roadmap tied to the bets above; run-rate |
| Dubai / UAE | Stevan, Mark | Is there an FY27 bet, and what revenue does it carry? |
Questions for Doug
- Spain payroll from Nov-26: apart from the new hire, what is the extra ~£2.3k/month?
- FY27 pay review, bonus pool and recruitment: what should be in?
- Does the UAE accommodation really end in December?
- Is any R&D tax credit assumed for FY26 or FY27 cash?
- Can partner-sourced UK revenue be its own stream with its own commission and affiliate rates (as Spain is)?
- September onsite travel: where did the Monzo bookings (made in Jul–Aug) get coded?
- Corpay UK reconciliation (~£10k exposure): closed before year-end?